The Hanoitimes - According to economists and businesses, with stable economic growth and efforts of the government, Vietnam is expected to meet its growth target this year and hopes for a rosy 2017 outlook.
Economist Tran Du Lich said Vietnam had maintained economic growth and curbed inflation while speeding up the settlement of bad debts, reducing lending interest rates and restructuring equitised firms last year. A positive sign is the government’s determination to build a transparent and constructive cabinet that offers maximum support to businesses.
In real estate, many projects have been delayed due to site clearance, not to mention difficulties in the cost of land use, administrative procedures involving project approval and credit policies. In order to develop a sustainable and stable real estate market, the government and localities should remove such hindrances.
Pham Xuan Hong, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Association of Garment Textile Embroidery and Knitting, hailed the government for achieving efficiency instead of chasing targets. Vu Thanh Tu Anh, Director of Research at the Fulbright Economic Teaching Programme in Ho Chi Minh City, said the biggest barrier to Vietnam during integration is capacity.
Opportunities are aplenty but tapping them requires brainpower and vision, he said, citing that the garment sector is predicted to enjoy the most benefits when Vietnam accelerates global economic integration but is incapable of performing the dying, fabric and weaving stages.
Chief economist Sebastian Eckardt from the World Bank in Vietnam forecast that Vietnam is likely to grow 6.3 percent this year thanks to strong domestic consumption and increasing investment. The National Financial Supervisory Commission of Vietnam (NFSC) says this year, Vietnam’s economy will improve due to the reform of institutions and of the investment environment, as well as the price recovery of energy and farming products on the world market, creating new impetus for the private sector.
Meanwhile, the World Bank (WB) and Asia Development Bank (ADB) have forecast that Vietnam’s GDP growth will reach 6.3 percent for this year, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) set that figure at 6.2 percent.
Policy management as well as legal and investment environment reforms in 2016 have begun to have an effect, the NCIF says. The consumption index increased slowly and steadily. The State implemented flexible management of monetary and exchange rate policies, presaging an average basic interest rate of 6 per cent in 2017. The nation is forecast to achieve its money supply and credit growth goals.
Economic expert Vu Dinh Anh says the exchange rate between the Vietnamese dong and US dollar will fluctuate in 2017, in accordance with economic and financial changes in the world, reports the Tien Phong newspaper. This year, Vietnam needs more active and flexible exchange rates, Anh says. The value of the Vietnamese dong can suffer from growth of inflation, while import volume and the price of petrol and other goods will increase.
In 2017, the agriculture sector will improve, while the construction sector will still face many difficulties. The property market will not experience a bubble but Việt Nam will not be able to attract as much foreign investment as in 2016. The Government has set economic development targets of 6.7 percent GDP growth, 4 percent inflation and export value growth of 6-7 percent for 2017.
To reach the goals, experts say, the Government will have to stabilise the macro economy, improve investment and business environments, and implement efficient economic restructuring to achieve greater productivity, higher quality and competitive ability.
By Anh Kiet