This was revealed in the Ministry of Industry and Trade’s draft strategy on domestic trade development, which is being publicized for recommendations.
According to the draft, the GDP of the domestic trade sector will be more than VND700 trillion by 2025, contributing roughly 15.5 percent to Vietnam’s GDP.
The annual growth rate (excluding the price factor) of the country’s total revenue from retail sales of goods and services for the period from now to 2020 will average at 13 percent per year, and rise to 14 percent in 2021-2025. The value will reach some VND5.8 quadrillion by 2020 and VND11 quadrillion by 2025.
The trade system in Vietnam’s urban areas will be streamlined to meet the standards of ASEAN 4.
Vietnamese economic firms will account for some 80 percent of the country’s total retail sales revenue by 2020, while the foreign direct investment (FDI) firms will make up about 20 percent before rising to 70 percent by 2025.
The proportion of modern trade models will be roughly 30 percent, or nearly VND3.8 quadrillion, by 2020, and rise to 35 percent or VND3.8 quadrillion, and 50 percent or VND22 quadrillion, by 2025 and 2035, respectively.
Modern trade models such as commodity exchanges, auction centers and franchises will be developed, and e-commerce will be boosted to have more than 60 percent of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) participating in e-commerce during the period.
For the period after 2025, the GDP of the domestic trade sector will reach some VND2.3 quadrillion by 2035, contributing some 15.5-16 percent to Vietnam’s GDP by 2030.
The annual growth rate of total retail sales of goods and services will average at 14.5 percent per year in the period and reach over VND11 trillion by 2025 and VND44 quadrillion by 2035.
The trade system in the country’s urban areas will be streamlined to meet the standards of ASEAN 4.
During the period, e-commerce will be developed to strive to get 80-90 percent of SMEs to participate in e-commerce.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the strategy was drafted based on data during the period from 2011 to 2015 when the GDP growth rate of the domestic trade sector was 9.05 percent per year. Besides, the ministry also based its strategy on the evaluation and forecast of commercial trends in the domestic and global markets.
Vietnam was ranked by A.T. Kearney among the world's top 30 retail markets with the best opportunities. The country’s retail market has grown 10.2 percent over the past year, with total sales reaching VND2.67 quadrillion ($117.6 billion), according to the General Statistics Office.
The market has been an attractive destination for foreign investors thanks to its relatively young population, a rapidly expanding middle class and high living standards.
Almost 60 percent of Vietnam’s population of 93 million people is under the age of 35, and is becoming better educated and richer. The country’s average income last year jumped to $2,200 from a meager $433 in 2000, according to official data.
The World Bank forecast that Vietnam’s $200 billion economy is likely to grow to a trillion dollars by 2035, with more than half of its population, compared to only 11 percent today, expected to join the ranks of the global middle class with the consumption of $15 a day or more.
Data from EuroMonitor International showed that Vietnam’s consumer spending is likely to grow 47 percent in the next four years to $184.9 billion.