According to the Ministry of Health, Vietnam currently has a population of 93.4 million. In the past 25 years, Vietnam has limited, avoiding more than 27 million people, equivalent to 27 provinces with current average population amount. Low fertility trends exist in many provinces in the South East and Mekong Delta.
Sharing with the press on July 11, Professor Nguyen Dinh Cu, former Director of Institute for Population and Social Studies, said that according to experiences of many countries such as Korea, Japan or China ..., it is difficult to recorvered when fertility rate decreases inscredibly. These countries waited for a long time after achieving replacement rates to adjust their family planning programs, which causes aging population and labor shortages. Fertility rate depends on economic development level, people tends to cut down birth giving when their economic life is improved.
Women in Ho Chi Minh City have the least children over the country. Picture for illutration: T.C.
"It is also a lesson for Vietnam to not adjust its policy too late. It is time for our country to loosen, even abolish the policy of two children", said Professor Cu.
This expert stated 5 reasons for loosening childbirth policy. Firstly, though allowed, with the trend of reducing births, people will still not produce more. China is an example. Secondly, the current reproductive age is 35 years old and below - people of the 8x generation. This generation is educated well on family planning program and do not want to have more children.
In addition, according to Professor Cu, over the past half century, Vietnam implemented the family planning program, people are more understood and clearly see the benefits of having fewer children. On the other hand, the loosing of childbirth policy is also in line with international law. Vietnam has signed the CEDAW international convention in which state that couples are entitled to decide their number of children and the gap between births.
In the end, Prof. Cu said that fertility rate was decreased for the past 12 years and Vietnam has maintained replacement fertility. On average, every woman of childbearing age has only 2,1 children.
Women in Ho Chi Minh City have the least number of children over the country
Recently, working with the leaders of the Ministry of Health on preparing a project on caring and improving people's health, Deputy Prime Minister Vu Duc Dam also requested for a population strategy in the coming time. The goal should be whether to limit births, maintain current birth control, or loosen two children policy.
The Population Ordinance (in 2003) provides that each couple and individual have the right to decide on the length of the birth, the number of children and the gap between births. However, this ordinance makes many people misunderstand that the State encourages the birth of many children. As a result, fertility and third births ratio increased significantly. In 2009 this provision was amended to "Every couple should have 1-2 children".
Recently, due to the declining trend of birth in some provinces, the population leaders has a more flexible message of "Every couple should give birth to two children".
There are three plan options for Vietnam's population. Firstly, if the rate of birth reduction is maintained, it is estimated that by 2049, the population of Vietnam will be 99 million. Secondly, when maintaining the current fertility, the population will be 105-110 million. Thirdly, the population shall increase then begins to decline to replacement fertility and reaches 120 million by 2049.